Presidential Race Is a Toss-Up in Arizona

Former President Donald Trump (R) leads Vice President Kamala Harris (D) by 2 points among voters overall and by 7 points with voters 50-plus. Meanwhile, in the U.S. Senate race, Representative Ruben Gallego (D) leads Kari Lake (R) by 7 points among voters overall, but among voters 50 and older, the race is tied.

Seventeen percent of voters plan to ticket split, voting for one party’s presidential candidate and the other’s U.S. Senate candidate. Among these ticket splitters, Trump leads Harris by 9 points, while Gallego leads Lake by 30 points.

While immigration and border security are the top concerns for Arizona voters, most older Arizonans also consider candidates' stances on Social Security, Medicare, helping people age in place, and the cost of utilities to be very or extremely important when deciding their vote in November. Additionally, a large majority favor electing a member of Congress who supports Medicare's efforts to negotiate lower drug prices.

Voters age 50-plus are the most motivated age group to vote in this election, with 92% saying they are extremely motivated to cast their ballots, a 6-point increase since AARP Arizona’s first poll, released in June. Older Arizonans are poised to help decide the outcome of the election; candidates should take heed of what matters most to them to earn their votes.


Methodology

AARP commissioned the bipartisan polling team of Fabrizio Ward (R) and Impact Research (D) to conduct a survey of voters in Arizona. The firms interviewed 1,358 likely voters, which includes a statewide representative sample of 600 likely voters, an oversample of 470 likely voter ages 50 and older, and an additional oversample of 288 Hispanic likely voters age 50 or older. The survey was conducted between September 24 and October 1, 2024, via live interviewer on landline (25%) and cellphone (35%), as well as SMS-to-web (40%). The survey was offered in both English and Spanish. The sample was randomly drawn from the Arizona voter list.

For more information, please contact Alex Juarez at mailto:ajuarez@aarp.org.