New AARP Pennsylvania Poll: Vice President Harris and Senator Casey Hold Narrow Leads in Presidential and U.S. Senate Races

Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump by 2 points among voters overall, while Trump leads Harris by 8 points with voters 50 and older. Sen. Casey leads Dave McCormick by 4 points among voters overall but McCormick holds a 5-point lead with older voters.

HARRISBURG, Pa. – Today, AARP Pennsylvania released its second statewide election survey that shows candidates for President, U.S. Senate, and state races should pay close attention to Pennsylvanians ages 50 and older. Ninety-one percent of voters ages 50 and older say they are “extremely motivated” to vote in this election, a 6-point increase since AARP Pennsylvania’s first poll, released in May.

Vice President Kamala Harris (D) leads former President Donald Trump (R) among voters overall, 49% - 47%, with 2% supporting other candidates and 3% undecided. In the head-to-head matchup, Harris leads Trump, 50% - 47%, also with 3% undecided. There is a large gender gap, with Harris up 19 points among women and Trump leading by 16 points with men. Among voters 50 and older, Trump leads by 8 points, 52% - 44%. Among women 50 and older, the candidates are tied, 48% – 48%, while Trump is favored among men 50 and older by 17 points.

Senator Bob Casey Jr. (D) leads Dave McCormick (R), 49% to 45% in the U.S. Senate race among voters overall, but among voters 50 and older, McCormick leads Sen. Casey, 50% - 45%.

Pennsylvania Treasurer Stacy Garrity (R) is in a tight race with Erin McClelland (D), leading 45% -44% with 11% undecided. And Eugene DePasquale (D) leads Dave Sunday (R) by a narrow 3-point margin, 47% -44%. In April, Sunday was ahead 44% -43%.

Eighty-four percent of voters 50 and older report that candidates’ positions on Social Security are important in deciding whom to vote for in November, followed by Medicare (77%), helping people stay in their homes as they age (72%), and the cost of utilities (70%). And the vast majority (83%) of older voters in Pennsylvania prefer a member of Congress who wants Medicare to continue negotiations for lower drug prices.

“Pennsylvania voters over age 50 are the biggest voting bloc and could tip the scale for any candidate in this election,” said Bill Johnston Walsh, State Director, AARP Pennsylvania. “If candidates want to win, they should pay attention to the issues that matter to voters 50 and older, from protecting Social Security and Medicare to helping people stay in their homes as they age.”

Other key takeaways from the poll among older adults in Pennsylvania include:

• Sixty-one percent say Social Security is or will be a major source of their income.  

• Sixty-four percent say they are worried about their personal financial situation, with the cost of food and utilities ranking as top drivers of financial stress.  

• Immigration and border security (37%) is the single most important issue when deciding who to vote for in November, followed by inflation and rising prices (29%) and the economy and jobs (26%).  

• Sixty-two percent of cite at least one personal economic issue – inflation and rising prices, the economy and jobs, and Social Security – as most important.  

• Twenty-seven percent of older voters are ticket-splitting swing voters. Trump leads Harris by 5 points and Casey leads McCormick by 7 points among these voters. 

• Twenty-nine percent of older voters identify as family caregivers, with 34% of older Black voters and 31% of older swing voters saying the same. 

AARP commissioned the bipartisan polling team of Fabrizio Ward (R) & Impact Research (D) to conduct a survey of voters in Pennsylvania. AARP commissioned the bipartisan polling team of Fabrizio Ward (R) & Impact Research (D) to conduct a survey of voters in Pennsylvania. The firms interviewed 1,398 likely voters, which includes a statewide representative sample of 600 likely voters, an oversample of 470 likely voters ages 50 and older, and an additional oversample of 328 Black likely voters ages 50 and older. The survey was done between September 17-24, 2024. The interviews were conducted via live interviewer on landline (24%) and cellphone (35%), as well as SMS-to-web (41%). The sample was randomly drawn from the Pennsylvania voter list. The margin of sampling error at the 95% confidence level for the 600 statewide sample is ±4.0%; for the 800 total sample of voters 50+ is ±3.5%; for the 400 total sample of Black voters 50+ is ±4.9%.

View the full survey results at aarp.org/PApolling and find all of our state battleground polls at aarp.org/voterpolls24. Read AARP’s coverage of the poll here.

For more information on how, when and where to vote in Pennsylvania, visit aarp.org/PAVotes.


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About AARP
AARP is the nation's largest nonprofit, nonpartisan organization dedicated to empowering Americans 50 and older to choose how they live as they age. With a nationwide presence, AARP strengthens communities and advocates for what matters most to the more than 100 million Americans 50-plus and their families: health security, financial stability and personal fulfillment. AARP also works for individuals in the marketplace by sparking new solutions and allowing carefully chosen, high-quality products and services to carry the AARP name. As a trusted source for news and information, AARP produces the nation's largest circulation publications, AARP The Magazine and AARP Bulletin. To learn more, visit www.aarp.org/about-aarp/, www.aarp.org/espanol or follow @AARP, @AARPenEspañol and @AARPadvocates on social media.