AARP Florida Poll: Biden Narrowly Leads Trump, But Voters Age 50-Plus Are Key to Florida Victory on Nov. 3

Posted on 09/10/20

Today AARP Florida released a new survey of likely Florida voters showing that that former Vice President Joe Biden narrowly leads President Trump by 2 percent in the Sunshine State, within the margin of error of the poll. 

Trump v Biden 2020 Presidential Election

But voters age 50-plus, who made up 64 percent of all Florida voters in 2018 and 57 percent in 2016, are not a lock for either candidate or major party, the survey showed.

The survey, conducted by the bipartisan team of Benenson Strategy Group and GS Strategy Group, also found that voters 50-plus slightly favor how President Trump is managing the coronavirus pandemic, with 50 percent strongly or somewhat favor his handling of the pandemic compared to 48 percent opposing the President’s performance on the pandemic.

However, voters age 50-plus who strongly oppose the President’s pandemic performance outnumber those who strongly favor his performance, 45 percent to 39 percent. The full survey results will be released on Tuesday, Sept. 15.

Among voters age 50 and up, President Trump leads former Vice President Biden 50 to 47 percent, slightly more than the poll’s margin for error of plus or minus 2.5 percent. 

Benenson Strategy Group and GS Strategy Group conducted a survey among 1,600 likely 2020 voters in Florida, which fielded from August 30 to September 8, 2020. Overall margin of error was plus or minus 2.5 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence.

“Candidates who want to win in 2020 must talk about the issues that matter to voters 50 and over – like voting safely from home or in-person, preventing cuts to Social Security and Medicare and lowering prescription drug prices,” said AARP Florida State Director Jeff Johnson. “Most importantly, Floridians are casting their ballots earlier than ever and candidates need to address their concerns now.”

The poll findings include:

  • President Trump trails former Vice President Joe Biden among all voters age 18 or older by 2 percent, within the margin of error.  Biden’s support is strongest among voters age 18 to 49, where he leads the President by eight points, 49 percent to 41 percent.
  • But among voters 50+, President Trump leads former Vice President Biden by 3 points.  President Trump’s support is strongest among voters age 50-64, where he leads Biden 52 percent to 45 percent.
  • Voters age 65-plus are narrowly split, with Biden leading Trump by a single point, 49 percent to 48 percent. 
  • Voters age 50-plus slightly favor voting by mail over early voting or voting in person at traditional polling places, the survey found.  Some 36 percent of those polled planned to vote by mail, while 27 percent planned to vote in person at early-voting sites and 33 percent planned to vote in person on Election Day. 
  • Among voters age 50-plus, opinion was split on whether to be vaccinated against the coronavirus when a vaccine becomes available.  Some 46 percent of voters age 50-plus said they planned to be vaccinated, 30 percent said they would not and 24 percent said they were unsure.

In August, AARP Florida launched “Protect Voters 50+,” a comprehensive voter engagement campaign to support and protect Americans 50-plus as they vote in the 2020 elections. The campaign will help Americans over 50 vote safely, whether at home or in person. The “Protect Voters 50+” campaign will provide people with the information they need about this year’s elections, including video voters’ guides, issue briefings, direct mail, text messaging, social media and paid media.

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You can find CDC’s latest coronavirus information at cdc.gov/coronavirus; AARP information and resources are at aarp.org/coronavirus. En español, visite aarp.org/elcoronavirus.

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